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來源篩選

The Meta-Anthropic Argument

Lesswrong

The author introduces the 'Meta-Anthropic Argument,' a variation of traditional anthropic reasoning which suggests that observing highly unlikely physical phenomena is expected because our existence depends on them.

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後人類論證

Lesswrong
25 天前

AI 生成摘要

我提出了一種「後設人擇原理」的論證方式，這是一種對傳統人擇原理的延伸思考：既然我們的存在取決於某些極其罕見的物理現象，那麼我們觀察到這些現象便是理所當然的。

認識論狀態：這是我剛想到的

有一種廣為人知的推理方式叫做「人擇原理」（Anthropic Argument，與同名的 AI 前沿實驗室無關）。其過程大約是這樣的：

科學家 1：「X 看起來極其不可能發生！為什麼我會觀察到它？」
（這裡的 X 通常是指像 以及隨之產生的 之類的事物）

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——你反而應該估計 P(X | 我在這裡問這個問題)。如果三氦過程行不通，就不會有足夠的碳讓你存在。想想 中所有那些沒有智慧生命在問這種問題的地方。少數有智慧生命的地方，幾乎肯定都存在某種像這樣的僥倖，使得智慧生命在那裡變得可能。這只是一種抽樣效應。」這一切都很好，我也同意第二位科學家——只有當有人在場提問時，問題才會被提出，而且你應該在先驗機率中包含你對當前狀況已知的一切。一旦你停下來思考，這點就顯而易見。而一旦討論涉及到弦論景觀，10^200 就是一個非常大的數字。

然而，如果你過度應用這種思維，你會發現，如果你的觀點與從所有智慧生命（或至少是所有人類）中隨機抽取的樣本相比，在任何方面顯得足夠非典型，你都會開始感到驚訝。例如，在一個相當合理的假設下——即只要人類不先滅絕，最終將殖民星系——那麼在我們當前的未來光錐中，人數似乎很有可能比過去光錐中的人數多出至少 O(10^10) 倍左右。這是一個相當巨大的巧合——為什麼我們當前的視角會如此非典型？顯然，在我們物種形成後，確實有人成為了第一個出生的智人，但那只是一個僥倖：它們確實會發生，只是非常罕見——所以我繼續問：為什麼是我？為什麼我是那 1/O(10^10) 的幸運兒（或至少是早期者）之一？這看起來簡直不太合理……

我見過這種論點被，證明一定存在，或者我們都應該有很高的 P(毀滅)，因為我們這一代人錯過前往星系的機會簡直太不可思議了。這是一個相當嚴重的「酸葡萄心理」案例，而且有趣的是，這個論點似乎無視了因果律。然而，我認為我們還需要考慮「後設人擇原理」（Meta-Anthropic Principle）：

科學家 3：「不，不，不，你實際上應該估計的是：P(X | 我在這裡，問這個問題，並對其應用人擇原理)。顯然，在未來我們了解更多之後，最初提出這個問題，特別是除了人擇原理之外沒有更好的方法來回答它，將會變得罕見得多。最初對這類事情感到好奇，與你生活在科學方法發展後不久強烈相關。這只是一種抽樣效應。」所以，他們忘記包含在先驗機率中的線索一直都在那裡，就在科學家 1 的名牌上。

^()

  • ^()我真正的觀點（給那些還在懷疑我有沒有觀點的人）是，貝氏主義者看待反事實的正確方式是 P(X | 我所知道的一切)，這通常非常接近 1——對於霍伊爾共振來說肯定如此。「周圍確實似乎有很多碳：我本人就是由這玩意兒構成的！我想知道它們是從哪裡來的？」一旦你開始進行比這更稀薄的反事實推理，任意選擇從你的條件中剔除更多信息，你就在日益脆弱的認識論冰面上行走；如果你在剔除幾乎所有已知信息（例如你生活的時代，甚至除了你是智慧生命這一事實之外的一切）後開始得到奇怪的結果，大概不應感到驚訝。如果你從條件中剔除的無數事物之一恰好是一個相關的表面僥倖（具體來說，是一個你在整個人類歷史中可能具有非典型性的相關方式），那麼你就會得到像這樣怪異的結果。這或許可以被稱為「後設-後設人擇原理」。

從統計學的角度來看，任何時候一個論點混合了貝氏推理和頻率論推理（如末日論證所做的），你都應該深表懷疑，並嘗試將其轉化為純粹的貝氏推理（或者如果你秘密地是個頻率論者，我想也可以轉化為純粹的頻率論——祝你好運）。從貝氏的角度來看，在人類滅絕之前，從所有曾經存在或將要存在的人類中抽取隨機樣本根本不是一個定義明確的操作。在人類滅絕前嘗試這樣做違反了因果律：執行它需要可靠地獲取關於尚未發生的、難以預測的事件的信息，即預知能力。因此，「在所有已經存在或將要存在的人類中，我很可能是典型的」這個概念，儘管對頻率論者來說聽起來很直觀，但根本是一個無效的先驗選擇——那不是一個均勻先驗，它違反了因果律（不像「在所有當前存在的人類中，我很可能是典型的」或「在到目前為止已存在的人類中，我很可能是典型的」，這兩者都是合理的先驗）。如果你使用這個無效的先驗，那麼由此產生的無效論點預測出唯一一種結果——即讓它私自引入取代有效先驗的頻率論隨機抽樣假設變得可能有效的結果——也就不足為奇了。

如果你沒看出來，這個笑話的一部分在於，上面的科學家 1、2 和 3 顯然都是頻率論者，而科學家 1 觀察結果的貝氏等價說法是：「太妙了，我之前關於這兩個核能階值比例的均勻先驗，在我意識到我們所有人字面上都是由碳組成的，並且我們對這一事實非常確定時，就已經強烈更新為確信它們是接近共振的。我意識到我們在這個主題上已經有了大量相關證據，而我曾愚蠢地誤以為這些證據只對生物化學家有意義！」對此，貝氏科學家 2 和 3 靜靜地點頭表示贊同。這就是人擇論證在貝氏框架下的樣子。